Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Thoughts on week 9

There was no formal class this week, but our group met to start planning for the presentation and next wiki page that we will working on with regard to the subject of overconfidence.

So far, I have reviewed one of the papers (Kruger & Dunning) which details findings of "incompetent" individuals being much more overconfident about their performance, than "competent" individuals, in various domains.

This initial reading brought to mind the following points, which I will investigate further in the course of writing the next wiki page:
  • The misunderstanding of the role of luck in performance. Taleb discusses this issue in both of his books, "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", with specific regard to individuals feeling that they had performed really well, when in fact their success can be attributed to luck.
  • Knowing how little you know being of more relevance than how much you know, in both the areas of self-development and understanding the possible causes of the results achieved, which can aid future learning & performance.
  • From my previous work experience: people's view of experts and not understanding what is required to achieve such a level. This sometimes being as simple as knowing the sources of information and perhaps, knowing more importantly that in fact there are no sources of information for a particular subject. This latter point also relates to the previous one about knowing how little you know.

So now it's on to reviewing the other papers and getting our group to agree on who does what for our presentation...

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